Mesoscale Discussion 0199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0851 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern MIssouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171351Z - 171515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms capable of large hail are possible this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...A few elevated storms in central Missouri have recently
   reported 1 inch hail. These storms have formed in an airmass with
   500-750 MUCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. These storms are quickly moving
   away from the better instability, but an additional storm cluster
   across southern Missouri may pose a severe threat as it moves
   northeastward. The 12Z KSGF RAOB showed moderate mid-level lapse
   rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km and MUCAPE around 1300 J/kg. This, combined
   with effective shear around 40 to 45 knots should be sufficient for
   a continued threat for a few stronger storms capable of mostly large
   hail. The sharp surface inversion evident on the KSGF RAOB will
   likely limit the overall damaging wind threat, but a strong gust or
   two also cannot be ruled out. A watch is unlikely this morning, but
   an additional severe weather threat is still expected later this
   afternoon/evening as the surface low approaches.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 03/17/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38809288 39179233 39349179 39399125 39319078 39069040
               38739029 37999039 37449058 37039079 36739142 36639216
               36559262 36569301 36739331 36919371 37229374 38809288