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Mesoscale Discussion 1597 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020
Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Montana into
northern and eastern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271927Z - 272200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat is gradually increasing across portions of
the northern High Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are expected
to be the primary threats, with a tornado or two possible with any
storm that can be become more long-lived and supercellular in
nature. Trends are being monitored for the issuance of a WW over
parts of the region.
DISCUSSION...Agitated CU are rapidly developing across western WY in
response to adequate diurnal heating and deep-layer ascent
associated with an approaching mid-level shortwave that is beginning
to overspread the northern High Plains. Modest flow aloft with the
associated mid-level shortwave is expected to contribute to 50+
knots of effective bulk shear, more than adequate for supporting
updraft organization and sustaining mid-level rotation. Forecast
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE downstream of the CU field (driven by 60+F
dewpoints per latest METARs and 8+ C/km low and mid-level lapse
rates per 17Z RAP) should support robust convective development
across the northern High Plains over the next few hours.
RAP forecast soundings depict relatively straight to slightly
cyclonically curved hodographs, suggesting that multicellular
clusters and splitting supercells will be the dominant mode of
convection, as also supported by HREF and the last few runs of the
HRRR. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary
threats. Given the magnitude of deep-layer shear expected, one or
two sustained right-moving supercells, capable of producing a couple
significant (around 2 inch diameter) hailstones and perhaps a
tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/27/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 42871044 44230968 45760762 46460641 46460507 46330448
45730419 44930413 44290421 43360457 42800527 42600629
42430794 42871044
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