Mesoscale Discussion 1404
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2020

   Areas affected...northern into central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050643Z - 050915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage over much of Oklahoma,
   and isolated cells may produce marginally severe hail or wind.
   Coverage is not expected to warrant a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated cells with periodic hail have developed over
   northwest OK, ahead of a larger areal increase in storms moving
   southeastward out of KS. These storms are mainly rooted between
   850-700 mb, with elevated CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Modest
   northwest flow aloft atop west/southwest winds in the lower levels
   is resulting in marginally favorable shear profiles for sustained
   elevated storms.

   While the boundary-layer is rather stable, storms are expected to
   increase in coverage through the night via warm advection aloft, and
   in association with the weak disturbance aloft. Sufficiently steep
   midlevel lapse rates will favor marginal hail, but the hail threat
   may decrease with time due to storm interference. Otherwise,
   localized strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out as aggregate outflow
   increases.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36479962 36879963 37029892 36989807 36299638 35749590
               35089602 34759658 34779775 35109855 35369922 35939951
               36189961 36479962