Mesoscale Discussion 1392
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0415 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Virginia into southern New Jersey

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 415...

   Valid 040915Z - 041215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 415 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of tornadoes will continue to spread north out
   of southeast Virginia and into Maryland and Delaware.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows strong pressure falls moving out
   of northeast NC and into southeast VA, on the order of 3-4 mb/hr. A
   band of supercells, tornadic at times, remains largely intact over
   southeast VA.

   To the north, sporadic small storms have been noted over the past
   few hours, and have increased over the Delmarva recently. This is
   likely due to pressure falls and low-level warm advection as wind
   fields increase.

   Over the next several hours, 0-1 SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2 will
   spread north, possibly reaching far southern NJ around 12Z. As this
   occurs, the environment will become increasingly favorable for
   tornadoes with both cells ahead of the main arcing line of storms
   and within the line itself.

   ..Jewell.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37817530 37117579 37097588 37117647 37247693 37617708
               38287681 39337640 39697588 39997487 39947432 39617413
               39327433 39137457 38777493 38367499 37817530