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Mesoscale Discussion 1785 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX...NW LA...SW ARK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132038Z - 132245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...AT 2030Z...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA/SOUTHWEST AR. A
LOW AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO GLANCE THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING
IN A CONTINUED SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE
WEAK...MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING
IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
THE HAIL RISK WILL LARGELY BE MITIGATED BY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BUT MODERATE MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS. THE SEVERE WIND RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90F MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOCALIZED WET
MICROBURSTS.
..DEAN/WEISS.. 10/13/2016
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 31619533 32069546 32769514 33289407 33369308 33139266
32599292 32139338 31539484 31619533
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