MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN/N-CNTRL AR...FAR SERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121922Z - 122045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN OK INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL AR. A
   WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WHICH IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
   ACROSS NERN OK INTO NWRN AR IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND POST-FRONTAL
   IN NATURE...AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
   REGION AMIDST 20-30 KT OF WSWLY 700 MB FLOW. MODEST DESTABILIZATION
   HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME
   CENTERED OVER OK...WITH LATEST RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   ESTIMATING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
   GIVEN THE ELEVATED/POST-FRONTAL NATURE OF CONVECTION AND MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY
   BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT LOCALIZED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY STILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED CELL WITH 40-50 KT OF CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
   PRESENT. 

   ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
   NWRN/N-CNTRL AR INTO NERN OK THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG
   PRE-FRONTAL HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F/ IS RESULTING IN
   STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE
   RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE
   SEWD MOTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF
   THESE THREATS...AND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 10/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35129496 35209544 35479645 35879646 36729535 36709437
               36679324 36399163 35759164 35039301 35129496