MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA INTO FAR SRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 170706Z - 170930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...TWO SEPARATE MCS/S HAVE MERGED OVER NWRN IA WHERE SOME
   STRONGER CORES HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE
   STRONGEST LIFT IS OCCURRING IN PROXIMITY TO MERGING OUTFLOWS AND
   NEAR THE SFC WARM FRONT. MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER SERN SD INTO NWRN
   IA HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS. THIS GENERAL MAGNITUDE OF WIND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
   AS THE MCS PROGRESSES ESEWD AIDED BY A SWLY 850 MB JET WHICH WILL
   CONTINUE TO ADVECT A RELATIVELY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
   THE SYSTEM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS WELL
   ESPECIALLY WITH THE NRN IA LEADING LINE WHICH IS ORIENTED W-E.

   ..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 07/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42429668 42549638 42819582 43409520 43289402 43309262
               42849206 41949256 41529308 41449417 41599547 41889616
               42129665 42429668