MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHEAST ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392...

   VALID 170353Z - 170500Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORM CLUSTER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SD WITH A HISTORY OF
   SEVERAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
   INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

   DISCUSSION...STORM CLUSTER THAT HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SD WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST OF AN OCCLUDING
   WARM SECTOR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
   ACROSS NORTHEAST SD TOWARDS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY HAS LIKELY
   BEEN STABILIZED BY AN ONGOING MCS THAT IS SHIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWEST MN. WHILE FORWARD MOMENTUM WILL
   PROBABLY SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT
   06Z...WEAKNESSES IN THE MID-LEVEL HODOGRAPH EVIDENT IN ABR VWP DATA
   ALONG WITH THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THIS
   RISK SHOULD BE IN A DECREASING STATE.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46069980 46189854 46319688 46069659 45619655 45249657
               45129702 44999773 44949871 44959929 46069980