MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261805Z - 261930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
   AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED IN SPACE AND TIME AND A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
   AFTERNOON NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO
   HANNIBAL MO...NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR CHICAGO. THE AIRMASS IN THE AREA
   IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND MLCAPE
   VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON A WEAK SIDE /20-35
   KT/...AS STRONGER FLOW REMAINS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
   SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS ALSO
   WEAK WITH NEARLY PARALLEL LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
   FURTHERMORE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST IN THE 6-7 DEG C/KM.
   FOR THESE REASONS...STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN ONLY LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED...TRENDING TOWARDS STORM CLUSTERS OR LINES. A FEW STRONG
   TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL
   THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37949377 38389406 38889432 39169427 39449356 39889213
               40289078 40778965 40818919 40538879 39978856 39368859
               38838891 38218989 37909072 37649188 37579268 37659325
               37949377