MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...AZ...NV...UT...NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171909Z - 172115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
   CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. LACK OF
   GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY STRONG BUOYANCY HAS DEVELOPED WITH HEATING
   OF THE DAY FROM NRN AZ/WRN NM NWD ACROSS MUCH OF UT GIVEN VERY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 9C/KM AND PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE /PW
   VALUES NEARING 1 INCH/ ENTRAINED WITHIN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
   THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING NNEWD ALONG THE WRN FLANK
   OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AND TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EFFECTS WERE
   LIKELY AIDING IN SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA IS
   FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR GREATER ORGANIZATION...THERE APPEARS
   TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG UPPER FLOW TO AID IN MASS EVACUATION AT OR
   NEAR ANVIL LEVEL. FGZ SOUNDING ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD
   SUPPORT HAILSTONE SIZE UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. FURTHERMORE...AS
   STORMS SPREAD ACROSS HEATED/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE SFC T/TD
   SPREADS ARE IN EXCESS OF 30-40F IN SOME AREAS...THE THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE.

   THE CHAOTIC/RANDOM NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND THE LIKELIHOOD
   THAT STRONGEST CELLS ARE PRONE TO HAVE RELATIVELY SHORT LIFETIMES
   GIVEN LACK OF STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING...SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WATCH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..CARBIN/KERR.. 08/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   38291000 37640955 36070862 33610890 34591239 35621377
               36691389 37431445 37551500 37961551 38601552 39591503
               40081439 40371313 40251243 40141144 38291000