MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO THROUGH ERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162035Z - 162230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SERN CO AND ERN NM
   THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH EVENTS
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS INCREASING
   ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...AND A FEW
   STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN NM. MID-UPPER WINDS
   ARE NNWLY WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY REGION. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR HEIGHTS TO RISE WHICH SUGGESTS
   MID-UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH LIGHT SELY OR ELY
   NEAR SFC WINDS VEERING TO NLY OR NNWLY 10-15 KT AT 500 MB.  LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE GREATER WITH EWD EXTENT INTO NM
   AND WRN TX. HOWEVER...THE WEAK NLY WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS WILL
   BE SLOW TO MOVE FAR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT IF THEY CAN
   DEVELOP A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO AUGMENT PROPAGATION EFFECTS.
   NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
   ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.

   ..DIAL/KERR.. 08/16/2013


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33260496 35370484 37560493 38640499 38620403 37200336
               34030320 33200370 33260496