MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...KS AND OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...493...

   VALID 152346Z - 160145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   492...493...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST AS IT DROPS SWD
   ALONG AND JUST E OF I-35 FROM KS INTO NRN OK THIS EVENING.
   ADDITIONAL SWWD PROPAGATION COULD OCCUR. OTHER STORMS CAPABLE OF
   HAIL EXIST ACROSS NWRN KS...AND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE
   GROWTH THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A PRIMARY CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO
   PROPAGATE SSEWD AND WILL AFFECT THE WICHITA AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3
   HOURS. THESE STORMS WERE RIDING SWD ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E
   GRADIENT...BUT WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITH SWLY 850 MB
   WINDS AROUND 10 KT. THE PROPAGATION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD POOL
   SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM MOTION.

   TO THE W...SCATTERED CELLS WERE MOVING SEWD OUT OF NEB AND INTO NWRN
   KS. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND AN EVENTUAL MCS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH COLD POOL CAN BE GENERATED. OTHERWISE...LOCALIZED
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   FOR SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PRESENT...BUT THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING WITH TIME...MAKING ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD
   AFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

   ..JEWELL.. 08/15/2013


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38459780 38379679 38409639 37809597 37039583 36029579
               35339616 35009652 34969735 35469863 36349965 37340059
               38270086 38940068 39400002 39019870 38459780