MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152217Z - 152345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
   ANOTHER FEW HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL TX. STRONG
   WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED/LONGER DURATION THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
   FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
   MULTICELL CLUSTER OVER THE LAST HOUR. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
   IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   THREAT...ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KT
   SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   HOWEVER...AS STORMS PROGRESS TO THE E/SE...LACK OF UPPER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AND WEAKENING SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER
   ORGANIZATION. PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES /PER 22Z MESOANALYSIS
   AND MORNING REGIONAL RAOBS/ COULD AID IN WATER LOADING AND THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS. WEAK MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN ADDITION TO LIMITING UPDRAFT
   LONGEVITY/STRENGTH...WILL ALSO LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. MARGINAL
   NATURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHORT DURATION OF ANY SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 08/15/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29839921 29629833 30099766 30899740 31609742 32309744
               32919769 33189836 33029903 31399992 30490042 30050017
               29839921