MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN NEB...FAR SERN WY...FAR
   NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132005Z - 132200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
   OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INVOF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE IS FORECAST
   TO BE STEERED EWD OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY FEATURES
   AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   PRESENCE OF SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE 50S BENEATH
   MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- E.G. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 7.0-7.5 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z DNR/LBF RAOB DATA. A FEW STORMS
   MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF A NNW/SSE-ORIENTED BOUNDARY
   DRAPED ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NWRN KS...AND INVOF CLOUD-LINE-MANIFESTED
   CONVERGENCE BANDS IN NERN CO. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH GENERALLY
   MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH GENERALLY ONLY MODEST DEEP SHEAR --
   E.G. AROUND 15-25 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR PER AREA VWP DATA --
   SHOULD KEEP ANY SVR THREAT QUITE MARGINAL/ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 08/13/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40700547 41710431 42290288 42310173 41570108 40200075
               39240209 37570240 37070389 37570499 40700547