MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131939Z - 132145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE VERY
   LOW.

   DISCUSSION...INSOLATION TO THE S OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM
   NEAR GOODLAND KS TO NW OF HUTCHINSON IS ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES TO STEEPEN AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
   LOWER 80S. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S -- HIGHEST ACROSS S-CNTRL
   KS -- THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONGER STORMS. THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO PREFERENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE MORE
   UNSTABLE...PRE-DEEP-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL
   KS...WHILE CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   ASCENT INVOF THE WRN EXTENT OF A DIFFUSE FRONT THAT ENTERS THE ERN
   PART OF THE MCD AREA FROM SERN KS WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONVECTION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIMITED DEEP SHEAR PER VWP DATA WILL
   KEEP CONVECTION LARGELY DISORGANIZED...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...STORM INTERACTIONS
   AMIDST SUFFICIENTLY HIGH PW -- OVER 1.5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS PER GPS
   DATA -- TO ENHANCE WATER LOADING COULD SUPPORT A FEW DOWNDRAFTS WITH
   PRIMARILY SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 08/13/2013


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37790092 38370083 38650024 38439924 38639880 39179882
               38849734 37759689 37269729 37089869 37250037 37790092