MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA AND WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 042209Z - 042315Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD.
   THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL TO SEVERE HAIL AND
   DMGG WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX NOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY PROGRESSING
   THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. PREFRONTAL TROUGHS AND LAKE BREEZES HAVE
   PROVIDED FAVORABLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
   UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE
   TO AID IN VERTICAL MOTION. AMPLE SURFACE HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH
   LOWER TO MID 60S F DEW POINTS HAVE DESTABILIZED MUCH OF WRN
   PA/NY...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
   STORMS. STRONGER UPPER FLOW/INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH THE
   APPROACHING TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS WITH
   TIME...ALTHOUGH POST-SUNSET RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DECREASING
   INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE TEMPORAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 08/04/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   41717851 41457946 41418047 41928066 42657928 43447904
               43687769 44047670 44857560 45137476 45037346 44457343
               42237653 41717851