MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NY...NRN AND WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 111431Z - 111530Z
   
   STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH
   15-18Z.  ONE OR MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED...PERHAPS SOON ACROSS AT
   LEAST WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK.
   
   RECENT NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT APPROACHING THE EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE
   ONTARIO...SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...APPEARS TO BE IN
   RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RETURN.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...PERHAPS PARTS OF
   THE CATSKILLS THROUGH MIDDAY...AS NEW STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
   DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE.  A
   SLOW STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS FROM 20
   TO 30 KTS MAY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
   THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
   LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/11/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   44977410 44327375 43407418 42267522 41427617 40407796
               40167901 40328035 41258045 41848037 42487925 43077835
               43047719 43597629 44517582 44977410