MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0714 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 111214Z - 111315Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS/ SHOULD
   CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SELY
   LLJ EXTENDING INTO WRN SD.  THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT OVER
   WRN-CENTRAL SD WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A WNWLY MID LEVEL JET
   ACCOMPANYING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER ONTARIO AND
   UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION IS LIKELY SUPPORTING THE
   ONGOING STORMS OVER SWRN SD.  03Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
   BACKBUILDING STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA SHOULD PERSIST INTO
   MID MORNING BEFORE THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MID
   LEVEL JET MOVES EWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION AND THE LLJ WEAKENS. 
   PRIOR TO THE FORECAST DIMINISHING TREND...MODERATE INSTABILITY...
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /40-50 KT/ AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE
   STRONGER CORES.  GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
   
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN NEB
   NWD THROUGH WRN SD/ND WITH THESE DETAILS PROVIDED IN THE UPCOMING
   13Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/11/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   42610024 42830235 43770399 44320404 44620381 44500166
               44190052 43739947 42689933 42610024