MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0957 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 260357Z - 260500Z
   
   THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE. 
   ALTHOUGH THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED... TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING A
   STORM CLUSTER ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREAS...NOW EAST OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ACTIVITY APPEARS MOSTLY ROOTED ABOVE A WEAKLY
   STABLE OR NEUTRAL SURFACE BASED LAYER...WHICH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST REMAINS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET DEEP INLAND OF THE COASTAL
   WATERS.
   
   GIVEN A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT SLIGHTLY IN EXCESS OF 15 KT OR
   SO...WITHIN A NEAR SATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS SEEMS LOW.  AND...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL APPEARS
   NEGLIGIBLE WITH CAPE OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 500
   J/KG.  HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
   40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 30+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW...PROVIDES AT
   LEAST SOME RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   
   THE THREAT APPEARS CONFINED MOSTLY TO IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...AND
   LOW...THROUGH THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME...AS MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AND
   PRECEDING ISOLATED CELLS SPREAD EAST OF MOBILE BAY THROUGH THE
   PENSACOLA AREA.  BUT...POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IF
   POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER FINALLY SPREADS INLAND WITH
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES INTO AREAS
   NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA CITY.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/26/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
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