MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW NEB...W CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 171758Z - 171930Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING 
   TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY KS.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE MAY AID CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT BY 19-21Z...IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME EAST OF
   SURFACE DRY LINE.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY FOLLOW
   SUITE THEREAFTER...SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE TOWARD MEDICINE LODGE.
   
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  AND...DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT FAVORABLE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY AND
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
   BRIEF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/17/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   40210002 40969988 40759837 39649828 38169861 37619864
   37239857 36989983 37700012 38830008 39000031