MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1024 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN OK  INTO  PARTS OF ERN KS AND
   THE OZARK PLATEAU
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 708...
   
   VALID 171524Z - 171700Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 708 CONTINUES.
   
   AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF WW 708 SOON.
   
   A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING...GENERALLY NEAR
   AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
   EASTERN KANSAS.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
   FIELD...DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGGING INTO
   PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS.  THE DIGGING JET IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT
   CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH.  AND...THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR A
   NORTH NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
   
   THE EXPANSION AND CONSOLIDATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION INTO ONE LARGE
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS.  WHILE ACTIVITY FROM THE
   SOUTHWESTERN-MOST CURRENT CLUSTER MAY TEND TO SPREAD ABOVE
   RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS NOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS...THE CONVECTIVELY
   GENERATED BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER MAY BEGIN
   TO LIFT NORTHWARD.  
   
   AND...DESPITE A TENDENCY TOWARD MID-LEVEL WARMING ACROSS THE OZARK
   PLATEAU...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE IN
   WAKE OF A SURFACE COLD WEDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHEAST
   ARKANSAS...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT EXISTS TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF MAIN STORM CLUSTER.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/17/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
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