MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 112311Z - 120015Z
   
   LOW-TOPPED PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NERN PA
   NEXT HOUR. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS
   EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
   
   STRONGLY-FORCED NARROW COLD-FRONTAL RAINBAND WITH EMBEDDED
   LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AROUND 20KT WITH ENEWD
   CELL MOTION IN THE 40-50KT RANGE THIS EVENING. LOW INSTABILITY
   ENVIRONMENT /ESTIMATED MUCAPE VALUES WELL UNDER 500 J PER KG/ WAS
   BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE NOSE OF
   INTENSIFYING CYCLONIC 80-90KT MID LEVEL JET. STRONGER SURFACE- BASED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE LINE HAVE SHOWN BRIEF VELOCITY COUPLETS
   AND REAR-INFLOW NOTCHES THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LIGHTNING...REFLECTIVITY...AND IR
   CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ALL SUGGEST LITTLE RECENT CHANGE IN THE
   INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL
   DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN
   TIME OF DAY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SUPPORT BY HIGH-RES WRF
   OUTPUT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/11/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...
   
   42147437 41607531 41437636 41577660 42417548 43037455
   44347318 43977285 43337306