MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA INTO PARTS OF THE SRN DELMARVA REGION
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 111849Z - 111945Z
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN VA INTO SRN DE.  LARGE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WIND
   GUSTS APPROACHING SVR VALUES.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
   ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/ERN EXTENT OF CLOUD SHIELD
   FROM CHESTERFIELD COUNTY VA TO SERN NJ.  DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY /SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/ COMBINED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ATTENDANT WITH SRN EXTENT OF SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
   ADVANCES EWD.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
   APPROACH...OR PERHAPS LOCALLY EXCEED...SVR VALUES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/11/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
   
   37277786 37687733 38347620 38587503 37907517 37047585
   36877606 36637701 36597749