MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...FAR SERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 041751Z - 041945Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF SRN CO/NRN NM
   THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY PROBABLE ACROSS SRN NM.
   CONTINUED MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN SPREADING TSTMS
   S/SEWD ALONG THE PLAINS AND MESAS OF SERN CO/ERN NM. DESPITE MEAGER
   LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND GUSTY WINDS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH. 
   
   VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS CBS/CU GROWING ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FROM
   NEAR LVS NWD THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL CO. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
   ALREADY MIXED INTO THE 40S ALONG THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. COMPARED
   TO 24 HOURS AGO...THIS IS GENERALLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER ACROSS ERN
   NM...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER SERN CO. NEVERTHELESS...ABUNDANT
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS AND
   RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THE
   DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. LATEST
   REGIONAL PROFILERS GENERALLY INDICATE SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 TO
   25 KTS ATTM. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /AS
   EVIDENCED BY AZTEC NM PROFILER/...MAY RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS OF
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. IF THIS OCCUR...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
   INITIALLY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   33270619 34480585 35500531 36790503 37530498 38040490
   38280451 37820360 37240295 36000296 34550301 33340324
   32420428 32240531 32470601