MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 041643Z - 041815Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND SRN LA OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
   SRN LA EXTENDING WNWWD INTO SE TX LEFT OVER FROM AN MCS FROM THE
   PREVIOUS DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT THIS MORNING
   ALONG THIS AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
   THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CUMULUS
   EXPANDING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX. THE AREA IS UNCAPPED ACCORDING TO
   THE LAKE CHARLES 12Z SOUNDING WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO
   50 KT RANGE. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
   HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. A BRIEF
   TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE
   PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
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