MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN...NRN WI...WRN HAL OF THE U.P. OF MI...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...
   
   VALID 142234Z - 150030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271
   CONTINUES.
   
   CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
   ALONG/JUST N OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN NWRN WI.  IN ADDITION...
   ACTIVITY HAS LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS FROM N
   CENTRAL BAYFIELD COUNTY SWWD THRU CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY.  STORMS
   ARE MOVING THRU AREA WHERE THERE IS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY IS MID
   80S/MID 50S...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH THE
   STORMS.  LATEST RUC MODEL IS OVERESTIMATING THE DEW POINTS  AND
   UNDERESTIMATING TEMPERATURES...THUS INDICATING THAT THERE IS BETTER
   LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR ENHANCING DOWNBURST AND HAIL
   POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 05/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
   
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