MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PEN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 051751Z - 051945Z
   
   INITIATION OF CONVECTION APPEARS UNDERWAY ALONG ATLANTIC/GULF COAST
   SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING WITH STRONG HEATING...AND MIXED LAYER
   CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  WEAKER INHIBITION TODAY
   SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS...WITH LOW-
   LEVEL FLOW FIELDS PERHAPS FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR
   PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY AS FAR NORTH AS AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
   TAMPA.  UNSATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...PARTICULARLY IN
   LOWER/MID-LEVELS...STILL APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT
   ENHANCED RISK FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN
   THE STRONGER...BUT GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED STORMS.  THIS POTENTIAL
   WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH WITH LOSS
   OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/05/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   27718215 28108233 28718211 28558172 28168139 27588104
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   26098146