MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0702
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT SAT MAY 05 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW KS...WRN OK...NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051657Z - 051830Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAK 700 MB COOLING IS OCCURRING
   ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS...EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE.  THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
    THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION...WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALREADY DEVELOPING INTO THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD FEATURE.
   
   HOWEVER...DEEPENING CONVECTION IS INCREASINGLY EVIDENT ALONG DRY
   LINE SOUTHWEST OF DODGE CITY INTO AREAS EAST OF AMARILLO...WHERE RUC
   ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS BECOMING
   NEGLIGIBLE.  WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITHIN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY FORM ONCE CAP BREAKS.  WHILE
   THIS MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
   APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-20Z.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR
   INFLECTION IN UPPER FLOW FIELD...FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
   INTO AREAS OF KANSAS EAST OF DODGE CITY.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR STRONGLY CURVED ACROSS THIS
   REGION...SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL...IN
   ADDITION TO RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/05/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
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