MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 282211Z - 282330Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR BOUNDARY MOVEMENT DIRECTION
   
   AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TX
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
   TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MARINE FRONT MOVING NWWD
   ACROSS SOUTH TX. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE NEAR 70 F AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH A LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL DRIFTING
   SLOWLY NWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-37 CORRIDOR. LOCAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
   VEERING WINDS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT WINDS ARE WEAK IN THE LOW TO
   MID-LEVELS. THOUGH THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENT
   FOR ROTATING STORMS...THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE HEAVY RAIN DUE
   TO THE SLOW FORWARD STORM MOTION. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
   ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS MAINLY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS ARE IN A WEAKLY FORCED
   ENVIRONMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
   AS THE SUN GOES DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/28/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
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