MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 272333Z - 280100Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS FAR ERN VA FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT
   A WW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW ACROSS ERN VA WITH A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA INTO CNTRL NC. A COUPLE OF SEVERE
   STORMS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SFC LOW IN AN AREA OF LOCALLY
   ENHANCED INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1200
   J/KG. THE WAKEFIELD VA WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION
   FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
   STEEP...TEMPS ALOFT SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL APPEAR COLD
   ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
   ALSO EXIST DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-64.
   SFC TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THIS SHOULD
   REDUCE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE GRADUALLY EWD EARLY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/27/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...
   
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