MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN NC...N-CENTRAL SC...S-CENTRAL VA.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 151619Z - 151745Z
   
   SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER DISCUSSION AREA AS BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZES BENEATH 120-140 KT UPPER JET MAX.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW INVOF NC/VA BORDER -- NE GSO. 
   THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE DEEPENING AND MOVE NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SERN VA.  TRAILING SEGMENTED COLD FRONT IS
   ANALYZED FIRST FROM LOW SWWD ACROSS HKY-AVL AREAS AS OF 16Z...THEN
   SWD FROM VICINITY HKY ACROSS SERN GA.  DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY --
   DEMARCATING SRN PORTION OF RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS -- IS EVIDENT FROM
   NEAR GSO EWD.  AIR MASS E OF COLD FRONTAL ZONES AND S OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING SFC DIABATIC
   HEATING...LEADING TO GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN VIS
   IMAGERY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT
   OVERSPREADS REGION...HELPING TO MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES. 
   FURTHER...SFC DEW POINTS LOW 60S OVER WRN PORTION OF AREA...TRENDING
   TO MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS CENTRAL NC -- CONTRIBUTE TO
   MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AND
   WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER CENTRAL/WRN NC -- IN RESPONSE TO STRONGEST
   ISALLOBARIC FORCING LIFTING NEWD ACROSS WW 147 -- DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   35418265 35758152 36248079 37017911 36907822 36367831
   35487907 34598027 34468117 35178160 35258243