MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1015 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...SERN VA.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...
   
   VALID 151515Z - 151715Z
   
   SVR THREAT CONTINUES IN REMAINDER WW 147.  AREA N OF WW ACROSS SERN
   VA AND EXTREME NERN NC MAY NEED ADDITIONAL WW WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   
   SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT ACROSS WW...EACH OF WHICH
   MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
   ISOLATED/MRGLLY SVR HAIL.  WRN-MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY CORRESPONDS
   WELL TO BACK EDGE OF MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD
   OF SFC COLD FRONT.  RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS OVER NERN NC AND SERN VA
   MAY RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SVR POTENTIAL TO SHIFT NEWD INTO AREAS N OF
   WW.  MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GRADUAL LOWERING WITH TIME
   OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW BASE TO NEAR SFC AS BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
   ADVECTION CONTINUES.
   
   AS OF 14Z...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MAIN SFC LOW INVOF NC/VA STATE
   LINE NE GSO...COLD FRONT SWD NEAR CAE...AMG.  MESOLOW WAS EVIDENT
   JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER NC/SC BORDER NE FLO AND ALONG WRN
   CONVECTIVE BAND.  STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WAS EVIDENT JUST
   AHEAD OF MESOLOW ACROSS NERN SC AND S-CENTRAL/SERN NC.  THIS ZONE OF
   PRESSURE FALLS...ASSOCIATED BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF SFC WINDS AND
   ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN SC
   DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...60-70 KT LLJ WILL SHIFT EWD
   OVER REGION.  RESULTING LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE
   FAVORABLE...E.G. 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN LATEST LTX/MHX
   VWPS AND IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE HODOGRAPHS
   CHARACTERIZING INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS...ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS OR
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE RISK OF TORNADOES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
   32498082 33258033 33518026 35017926 35787873 36467827
   36997746 37037628 36917600 36247578 35597545 35217552
   35207570 35047608 34567654 34697665 34637706 34387756
   34177782 33837797 33907817 33837868 33407913 33147920
   32518025