MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO...WRN/NCNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 030905Z - 031000Z
   
   WELL ORGANIZED AND VERY LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO CONTINUES MOVING EAST AT
   ABOUT 45KT ON THE BORDER OF IA/MO EARLY THIS MORNING. PRESENT SPEED
   AND MOTION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
   TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...TO AREAS EAST OF TSTM WATCH 107. A NEW
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTRL IL IS LIKELY IN
   THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF THE MCS EARLY TODAY.
   WHILE STRONGER INSTABILITY STILL RESIDES PRIMARILY SW OF THE AREA OF
   CONCERN...SUFFICIENT FORCING AND SHEAR APPEAR PRESENT TO MAINTAIN AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE MS RIVER IN
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SHORT-RANGE
   MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FORECAST TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS MUCH OF NRN IL THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND
   EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...A NEW SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   41469256 41699006 41538854 40618827 39519113 39549351
   40029281 40619226 41159215