MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB....SWRN AND SCNTRL IA...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...
   
   VALID 030722Z - 030815Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107.
   
   PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WIND SHIFT CONTINUES SPREADING EAST
   AT 40-50KT FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD PARTS OF SCNTRL IA AND
   NWRN MO THIS MORNING. ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN NEB
   IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SURFACE WIND SHIFT...OVER
   PAWNEE...RICHARDSON...AND NEMAHA COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT
   TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS THE DENSITY CURRENT CONTINUES DEVELOPING
   ACROSS NWRN MO AND ACTS TO LIFT INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS ON THE NOSE OF LLJ. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH LATEST
   AVAILABLE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR THESE AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...FASTER MOVING SEGMENT OF THE BOW APPEARS TO BECOME
   ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
   HOWEVER...STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT/BOW INTERSECTION EWD...FROM ADAIR AND GUTHRIE COUNTIES EWD TO
   DALLAS AND MADISON COUNTIES...WILL SUSTAIN INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY
   SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
   HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 04/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   40599235 39989235 40009286 39639288 39429451 39399554
   39499688 39969679 39999641 41009639 41389642 41389592
   41879612 41869533 41859372 41829327 41869278 41529246
   41139232 41109210 40579215