MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL KS INTO W-CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 010011Z - 010145Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING E/NE OF
   WW 36 AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE.
   
   RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SW-NE AXIS FROM COFFEY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
   E-CNTRL KS TO CASS AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL MO.  SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
   OCCURRING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
   NWD.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
   TO INCREASE BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES MAY
   APPROACH 1000 J/KG BETWEEN 01/04-06Z.
   
   CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM LATHROP MO SWWD INTO ERN KS
   INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PRIMARY
   UNCERTAINTY IS NWD EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM POTENTIAL.  LATEST
   SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOCATIONS NEAR AND N OF THE
   MO RIVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO STABLE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO
   SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
   THREAT.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
   APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH SWD EXTENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...
   
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