MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK THROUGH S CNTRL AND ERN KS
   AND EXTREME WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 282105Z - 282200Z
   
   INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING INITIALLY FROM N CNTRL AND NERN OK INTO S CNTRL AND SERN
   KS AND EVENTUALLY INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
   WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD EVENING.
   
   A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NERN KS EWD TO NEAR
   KANSAS CITY THEN SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN MO. A DRYLINE EXTENDS
   FROM SERN KS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN OK. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
   WAS DEVELOPING OVER NERN NM AND IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME THE
   DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL JET
   WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN TOWARD EVENING OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING EWD ADVANCING
   UPPER JET EXIT REGION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO A NWD RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING.
   
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG NRN EDGE OF
   MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS N CNTRL AND NERN OK WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
   RISING THROUGH THE 50S. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND CAP
   WEAKENS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN VICINITY OF THE
   RETREATING BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK INTO SRN KS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3
   HOURS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/28/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   37109481 35939680 37089761 37829603 38909483 38609394