MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 191225Z - 191830Z
   
   AREAS OF ICE PELLETS...FREEZING RAIN...AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
   TO PLAGUE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX THROUGH THE MORNING.
   WHILE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
   0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PER HOUR...ROAD SURFACES BETWEEN MAF AND
   LBB MAY BECOME SLICK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND SERN
   NM COULD EXPERIENCE A MIX OF ICE PELLETS AND SNOW... PERHAPS
   CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING.
   
   WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT HAS DEVELOPED ATOP COLD SURFACE-BASED AIR
   MASS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING.
   LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING BETWEEN MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS
   THE PLAINS AND UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW THROUGH
   MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
   LATEST 4KM WRF-NMM AND WRF-NSSL SUPPORT MAXIMUM HOURLY PRECIPITATION
   RATES BETWEEN 0.03 AND 0.05 INCH ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH
   18Z.
   
   RECENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A RELATIVELY
   NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
   WET-BULB FREEZING LINE. THIS LINE CURRENTLY PARALLELS I20 FROM THE
   MAF AREA TO NORTH OF PECOS. FARTHER NORTH...RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND
   MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ICE PELLETS AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT WEAK ELEVATED
   WARM LAYER DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH NORTH OF A GDP-CNM-LBB LINE AS
   STRONGER ASCENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
   THUS...A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW...OR A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS
   WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE NRN/NWRN
   PORTIONS OF THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/19/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   32410073 32130138 31730213 31690356 31390400 30990429
   31030485 31490551 31720554 32490531 33080498 33480434
   33700331 33830223 33920144 33860029 33380022 32740047