MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM...PARTS OF WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 190821Z - 191215Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON THE
   INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM. THE
   GREATEST CHANCE FOR GLAZE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.10 INCH PER 3H
   SHOULD EVOLVE GENERALLY NORTH OF I20/I10 AND WEST OF MAF  THROUGH
   DAYBREAK.
   
   LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND
   EVOLVING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS NRN MEXICO...NM... AND
   WEST TX. BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND INCREASING
   MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL AHEAD OF BAJA CLOSED LOW...LOW LEVEL AIR
   MASS ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND POINTS WEST WAS COOL/COLD AND
   RELATIVELY DRY. AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE RIO
   GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS TO SERN NM HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DIABATIC
   COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE
   CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BIG SPRING WWD ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY TO
   WEST OF GDP. THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE LAGS THE WET BULB FREEZING
   LINE TO THE NORTH BUT HAS BEEN SETTLING SWD EARLY TODAY AS
   PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
   THAT A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
   REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE
   SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME COULD RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO A
   FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR THROUGH 12Z.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/19/2007
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
   
   31930556 31510537 31120471 31410354 31530174 31770092
   32240071 32640101 32760189 32530393 32270551