MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND SEWD INTO CNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...
   
   VALID 021017Z - 021145Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE
   ACROSS WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   AS OF 1005Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HP SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO
   HYBRID CURRENTLY OVER MORRISON AND TODD COUNTIES INTO CNTRL MN
   MOVING SEWD AT 30-40KTS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   STORMS WERE LOCATED UPSTREAM OVER CLAY COUNTY MN AND BARNES COUNTY
   ND. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LEADING STORM COMPLEX IS
   MOVING ALONG COOL SIDE OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO
   W-CNTRL WI /N OF EAU/...WHILE UPSTREAM STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED ABOVE RESIDUAL COLD POOL. AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES
   OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CO-LOCATION OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   SUGGESTS THAT MORRISON/TODD COUNTY COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
   DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD...SO LONG AS IT CAN
   CONTINUE TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY STRONG CAP IN PLACE /I.E. CIN VALUES
   OF -200 TO -300 J/KG/.
   
   MAINLY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS OVER NWRN MN/ERN ND.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/02/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
   
   47109841 47109545 45099260 45109549