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Mesoscale Discussion 1039 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected...central into southeast TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281549Z - 281745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may develop along residual outflow across central
into southeast Texas from late morning into the afternoon.
Severe/damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch will
likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Convection is starting to develop near/just behind
outflow across central Texas. While outflow may continue to sag
southward, a very moist airmass remains in place with surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Strong heating and midlevel lapse
rates around 8-8.5 C/km within this moist environment is resulting
in strong destabilization (MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg). Any storms
that develop within this airmass will likely become severe, posing a
risk of large hail and severe gusts. If clustering occurs, a line of
severe storms may develop southeast from the Edwards Plateau toward
the Upper Texas Coast later this afternoon. A watch will likely be
needed for portions of the region soon.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30519909 30769888 31059830 31229733 31109402 30839358
30209367 29939375 29609436 29359492 29309566 29319726
29359789 29439833 29509868 29629891 29959906 30189910
30519909
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