Mesoscale Discussion 0537
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...TX South Plains into western north TX and southwest
   OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164...

   Valid 240330Z - 240530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 164
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe storms will continue late this evening
   and potentially into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Some upscale growth is underway with a storm cluster
   southeast of Amarillo, with evidence of accelerating and expanding
   outflow, and development of new storms to the northeast of the
   primary bowing segment. A 79 mph gust was recently measured near
   Silverton, TX with this cluster. This evolution is likely being
   aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet, as observed in
   recent VWPs from KLBB. In the short term, supercells embedded within
   this cluster will continue to pose a threat of large to very large
   hail and perhaps a tornado, while some increase in severe-wind
   potential could accompany the growing cold pool. 

   Longer-term evolution of this cluster remains uncertain, as it
   encounters greater downstream CINH with time. However, if the cold
   pool can continue to grow and organize, and potentially encompass
   ongoing semi-discrete cells to the east of Lubbock, then some severe
   threat will spread into parts of western north TX and southwest OK
   late this evening into the early overnight. Depending on short-term
   observational trends, local watch extension and/or new watch
   issuance may need to be considered prior to the Midnight CDT
   expiration time of WW 164.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   32990038 33130095 33970242 34370252 35000100 35099924
               33949875 33309872 32969929 32909996 32990038 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN