SPC AC 302044
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004
   
   VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
   CMH 20 N JKL 45 WSW LOZ 35 SE PBF 20 ESE TXK 40 SSW PRX 40 N PRX 20
   WNW TBN 25 SW MLI 35 S LSE 25 NNE JVL 40 N DAY 30 S CMH.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
   JKL 45 ENE HSV 40 WSW CBM MLU 20 SSE GGG 45 NE ACT 35 NE DAL 40 WSW
   JEF 15 S CID 10 NNE MSP 40 SE OSH BEH 25 SE FDY 25 WSW ZZV 15 NE
   JKL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
   CHS 35 SE BHM 40 SSW JAN 35 SE LFK AUS 45 ESE JCT 25 NNE BWD 30 SW
   DUA 25 NE MKO 55 NNW SGF 30 W OTM 25 E MCW 30 SW STC 15 ENE BRD 55
   NNE EAU 30 W CLE 25 NW PIT 15 ENE MGW 40 E LYH 40 ESE ECG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 40 N BWD
   10 SSE ADM 35 SSW TUL 15 S CNU 25 SSW ICT 45 SW GLD 35 SSE CPR 40
   NNE 81V 10 NNW ATY 65 N GFK ...CONT... 25 SW BUF 15 S ACY ...CONT...
   SSI 25 ESE GNV 10 SW PIE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN
   10 NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME NERN TX
   / SERN OK...MUCH OF AR...THE SERN HALF OF MO...FAR ERN IA...FAR SRN
   WI...IL...IN...SWRN OK...MUCH OF KY...THE NWRN HALF OF TN AND FAR NW
   MS....
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN TX...ERN OK...NRN
   LA...AR...MO...ERN IA...SERN MN...SRN WI...SWRN
   MI...IL...IN...OH...KY...TN...NRN MS AND NWRN AL....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF
   THE CONUS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WIDESPREAD / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE NOW
   UNDERWAY -- CENTERED ON THE MS / OH / TN VALLEYS.  
   
   LARGE / NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH -- ACCOMPANIED BY 75 KT SWLY 
   MID-LEVEL JET MAX -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
   REGION...WITH LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW DOWNSTREAM. 
   
   AT THE SURFACE...UNSEASONABLY DEEP /989 MB/ SURFACE LOW NOW OVER WRN
   MN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MN...WITH COLD FRONT NOW FROM MN
   ACROSS IA / WRN MO INTO ERN OK / NERN TX FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
   EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT
   FROM THE LOW SEWD ACROSS NRN IL / NRN IN...ACROSS OH AND INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION AT THE LEADING EDGE OF WARM / VERY MOIST
   LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE RETREATING NEWD. 
   
   ...MS / OH / TN VALLEYS...
   DETAILED / SHORT-TERM INFORMATION REGARDING ONGOING SEVERE EVENT IS
   CONTAINED WITH RECENT SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS / WATCHES.  
   
   BROAD PERSPECTIVE REVEALS VERY MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   IN PLACE EAST OF COLD FRONT / SOUTH OF WARM FRONT.  DEWPOINTS AS
   HIGH AS THE MID 70S HAVE SPREAD AS FAR NWD AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. 
   THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER THE WARM SECTOR HAS
   RESULTED IN BROAD AREA OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.
   
   WITHIN THIS AIRMASS...BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS ONGOING ALONG
   COLD FRONT FROM NERN TX NNEWD INTO ERN IA / SERN MN...WITH NUMEROUS
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EAST OF THE FRONT WITHIN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
   ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE TN / OH VALLEYS.  
   
   EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE NIGHT...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ALONG WITH
   NUMEROUS / POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  WIDESPREAD /
   SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT AS
   LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS / VEERS WITH TIME.  RESULTING STRONG /
   GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD MAY ALLOW BROKEN LINE OF
   SUPERCELLS TO BECOME MORE LINEARLY-ORGANIZED AND CAPABLE OF
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.  MEANWHILE...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO
   CONTINUE WITH BOTH EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LINE AS WELL
   AS WITH PERSISTING ISOLATED STORMS.
   
   
   ...CAROLINAS AND VICINITY...
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING HAVE ALLOWED
   AIRMASS INVOF WARM FRONT / EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO
   DESTABILIZE...WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. 
   MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS.  WITH SEVERAL STORMS ONGOING ATTM...IT
   APPEARS THAT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK OVER THIS
   REGION.  THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EVENING AS
   SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH TIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS / MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
   SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS WHERE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE DUE
   TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD /-22C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  WITH
   UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ESEWD
   OVER THIS REGION...EXPECT A LIMITED / PRIMARILY DIURNAL SEVERE
   THREAT WITH LOW-TOPPED / WEAKLY-ORGANIZED STORMS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/30/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z