STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S DBQ 40 SW RFD 45 S CGX 35 ENE FWA 30 SW MFD 35 S CMH LUK
40 E BMG 30 S MTO 50 NNW ALN 15 WNW UIN 30 E OTM 10 E CID 20 S DBQ.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE MLC 45 SSE HOT 20 ESE GLH 40 WSW TCL 25 S SEM 30 NNW PNS
20 S MOB 25 NE MSY 30 NNE LFT 10 NNE POE 10 S GGG 30 SSW PRX
20 NNE DUA 15 ENE MLC.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 NNW TCC 25 E TAD LAA 10 W GCK 35 NW GAG 35 WNW CDS 30 WNW PVW
25 SSW TCC 45 NNW TCC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE CTB LVM
25 WSW LND 30 SSE RWL 10 SSW IML 15 SW GRI 35 NW OMA 10 W SPW
10 WSW MKT 30 SW EAU 25 WNW OSH 25 NNW GRR DTW HLG CRW 45 WNW GSO
40 E CRE ...CONT... 10 SSE 7R4 25 NE LCH 40 SE CLL 60 W COT
...CONT... 20 ESE P07 35 WSW SJT 50 NNE BGS 50 W LBB 45 ENE 4CR
30 NW SOW 25 ENE EED 15 S PMD 35 NE SBA 35 N PRB 30 NE SAC
15 SW 4LW 65 W BKE 30 N PUW 70 NW FCA.
...MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
MATURING MCS WITH EMBEDDED MVC IS LOCATED ALONG THE IL/IND
LINE...MOVING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 20-25KT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD
FEATURE...MAIN UPPER LOW IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS IA WITH CONVECTION
MAINLY EAST OF CENTER OF CIRCULATION. LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 6.5-7C/KM...HAVE YET TO ADJUST CONVECTIVELY
FROM CENTRAL IL...EWD INTO SWRN OH. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
ZONE OF INSTABILITY ALONG WHICH GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF MCS.
ACTIVITY BENEATH UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR
TO BE THE THREATS MOST LIKELY WITH THIS CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS.
...WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
REGIONAL RADAR DATA DEPICTS WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE ARKLATX WITH WLY ELEVATED INFLOW FEED ACROSS SRN OK INTO
BACKBUILDING MCS ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN LA. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
THIS REGION SUPPORT THIS DEPICTION WITH STRONG VEERING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION. IT
APPEARS LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AT A
REASONABLE CLIP SEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO SWRN MS...WITH ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY PROGRESSING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE LATER
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LLJ WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE LATE
TONIGHT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA INDICATES 7.5-8C/KM SFC-6KM LAPSE
RATE WITH STRONG INSTABILITY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FAVORS AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION LATE
TONIGHT AS MASS FIELDS BEGIN TO FAVOR DEEP CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT.
..DARROW.. 05/15/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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