STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   10 SSE DRT 45 N CLL 20 NE GWO 10 NNW GAD 25 ENE CAE CRE ...CONT...
   10 NE SSI 20 W PFN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE PUB CAO TCC
   55 NE 4CR 35 WNW 4SL 45 SE CNY 20 N VEL 15 SE LND 25 NNW LAR
   15 NE DEN 35 NE PUB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07
   70 ENE P07 55 S BWD 45 WSW TXK JBR 20 ENE EVV 25 WNW DAY 35 NW MFD
   15 WSW ERI 30 ENE LBE 35 ENE CHO 25 WNW NHK 40 ESE DOV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PBI 15 SSE FMY.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CLOSED...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA THIS MORNING
   WILL OPEN TONIGHT AS MID-/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTS NEWD OUT OF
   THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL DIG SEWD
   INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY
   PHASING WITH THE MEAN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE OK/AR/MO REGION ON
   TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL WEAK MID-/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
   EVIDENT ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CNTRL MEXICO AND SW OF
   BRO ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...RATHER COMPLICATED FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED
   EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS
   FROM WRN KY SWWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL MS. FRONT THEN
   TRAILS SWWD ACROSS CNTRL LA INTO TX JUST S OF DRT. AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO REMAINS ESTABLISHED FROM S OF MEI EWD
   THROUGH MGM AND MCN INTO SRN SC NEAR CHS. A COASTAL/MARINE BOUNDARY
   HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM THE TX
   COAST PLAIN INTO CNTRL LA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   THESE LATTER TWO BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.  
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO GA/SRN SC...
   WAA REGIME ALONG 30-40KT LLJ AXIS SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING STRONG/SVR
   TSTMS FROM ERN LA/SRN MS EWD ACROSS CNTRL AL/GA AND INTO SRN SC
   THIS MORNING. COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS /MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG/ AND 50-55KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGEST
   A CONTINUED WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY
   TRACKING ACROSS CNTRL AL. 
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO
   EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN LA NWD INTO SRN MS/AL AS FORCING FOR
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
   AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW-
   LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SHOULD BE AROUND 40-50KT...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   FOR TSTM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION. RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN LOWEST
   3KM OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS
   POSSIBLY CONTAINING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
   WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ACROSS CNTRL MS/AL WHERE LOCALLY BACKED WINDS COULD AUGMENT LOW-
   LEVEL HODOGRAPH WEAKNESS.
       
   ...SRN TX EWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...  
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO COULD INITIATE
   TSTMS AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-
   LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY BY AFTERNOON FOR AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  
   
   FARTHER W ACROSS S TX...TSTMS MAY NOT INITIATE UNTIL LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
   OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. HERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-
   2500 J/KG. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...AS LINEAR FORCING INCREASES ALONG THE SURGING
   COLD FRONT...STORMS SHOULD BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT WITH AN
   INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. NOTABLE WEAKENING TO THE MID-
   LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL DUE
   TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION LOADING EFFECTS.    
   
   ...CNTRL AND ERN TN/KY...
   ALTHOUGH THE ETA SUGGESTS A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WEAK LOW-
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SHOULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION.  
   
   ...ERN NC/NERN SC...
   THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM
   NERN SC INTO ERN NC ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THIS
   REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS...HOWEVER MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
   THREAT.
        
   ..MEAD/JEWELL.. 04/07/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z