Mesoscale Discussion 1659
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
   England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

   Valid 162220Z - 170015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of severe/damaging wind potential is becoming
   apparent across far eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and
   into adjacent portions of southern New York and southwest
   Connecticut. Further south into Maryland and Virginia, thunderstorm
   development appears probable in the coming hours with an attendant
   wind risk.

   DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery and lightning trends over the past hour
   have shown a steady intensification trend of convection across far
   eastern PA into northern NJ with a few wind damage reports already
   noted. Given favorable buoyancy and steep (8 C/km) low-level lapse
   rates immediately downstream, this wind damage threat should persist
   as storms move towards the coast and/or southwest CT. 

   Further to the southwest into MD and VA, convection has largely
   struggled to remain sustained over the past hour - likely due to
   generally weak forcing for ascent driven mainly by diurnal heating
   and some lift along a diffuse lee trough axis. However, early signs
   of convective development has been recently along an outflow
   boundary associated with upstream convection across WV. Deeper
   convection may materialize east of the Appalachians as the boundary
   moves into a more buoyant air mass. Very warm surface conditions
   (temperatures in the upper 90s, low 100s) are resulting in deep
   boundary-layer mixing up to 2 km, which, when combined with PWAT
   values around 1.75 inch, should be supportive of wet downbursts with
   an attendant severe/damaging wind risk. Convective coverage remains
   uncertain, but recent WoFS guidance continues to show at least
   scattered thunderstorm development, suggesting the wind risk
   continues across southern portions of WW 548.

   ..Moore.. 07/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39867407 39627477 39437574 38947644 38487699 38337734
               38377772 38447797 38697822 38927823 39147803 39537766
               39807736 40027698 40177662 40277629 40547556 40627512
               40917478 41197465 41507433 41617396 41627364 41567344
               41387319 41157316 40967338 40737358 40637371 40297394
               39997397 39867407