Mesoscale Discussion 0342
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0832 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of western/middle TN and western KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021332Z - 021500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat will probably persist this morning as
   thunderstorms spread northeastward. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of convection is ongoing
   this morning over southwestern TN and vicinity. While the boundary
   layer is only modestly unstable per 12Z BNA sounding and recent RAP
   forecast soundings over western TN, strong deep-layer shear
   associated with a pronounced mid/upper-level jet is present over the
   lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Given the somewhat linear nature
   of the ongoing cluster, strong to damaging winds should be the main
   threat in the near term. But, the presence of a strong southwesterly
   low-level jet and effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2 suggests that
   tornadoes will also be a concern with either line-embedded
   circulations, or with any supercells that can develop and persist.
   Trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance,
   pending signs of greater convective organization/intensity.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35388990 36298962 36878896 37048824 36948750 36668712
               36158701 35558712 35128795 35028873 35388990