Mesoscale Discussion 0228
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0739 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...East-central MO into central/southern IL and
   western IN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39...40...

   Valid 141239Z - 141445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39, 40
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado
   may spread eastward through the morning.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends and cooling cloud-top temperatures from IR
   imagery suggest some increase in convective vigor across
   east-central MO into adjacent western IL within the last hour, with
   a 47 kt measured gust recently noted west of St. Louis. Some uptick
   in storm organization remains possible later this morning, as
   continued low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating
   allow for some downstream destabilization within a favorably sheared
   environment. Such an uptick would likely be accompanied by an
   increase in damaging-wind potential, especially near/south of a warm
   front draped from west-central IL into northwest IN. Strong
   low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH of greater than 250 m2/s2)
   could also support a brief line-embedded tornado. 

   With some potential for ongoing storms to intensify as they approach
   western IN, and also build southward toward parts of the OH Valley,
   additional watch issuance may be needed later this morning, though
   the timing and areal extent of any new watch remain uncertain at
   this time.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39849034 40648870 40998796 41028676 40358633 39588637
               39078646 38638650 38348674 38278734 38188875 38288979
               38289073 38339079 38549077 38759072 38969066 39849034