Mesoscale Discussion 0220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 37...

   Valid 132329Z - 140130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.

   SUMMARY...A potential for very large hail, wind damage and a tornado
   or two is expected to develop across parts of northeast Kansas over
   the next hour, extending eastward into parts of north-central
   Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Topeka shows a
   cluster of intensifying convection across parts Geary and Morris
   Counties in Kansas. These cells are expected to grow upscale into a
   rotating storm over the next hour. Any storm that can become mature
   should eventually turn to the right to a more east-northeasterly
   direction. RAP analysis suggests this convection is near a maximum
   in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to above 2000 J/kg. In
   addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has veering winds with height in
   the lowest 2 km, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This, along with
   0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range will
   support supercell development. Very large hail and a tornado will be
   possible with this storm, or with additional intense cells that
   mature over the next hour or two. 

   Additional storms are expected to develop further to the east, from
   near the Kansas City Metro eastward into north-central Missouri.
   MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, along with moderate
   deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, evident on
   forecast soundings, will also likely support supercell development.
   Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although a
   brief tornado will be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38689488 38619597 38669644 38959677 39359665 39489620
               39499490 39459354 39359322 39089310 38749329 38719364
               38689488