Mesoscale Discussion 0139
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1047 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into far southwest GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 24...

   Valid 121647Z - 121745Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues.

   SUMMARY...A limited severe threat with low probabilities for a brief
   tornado/locally strong gusts should persist with a thunderstorm line
   moving east across the Florida Panhandle and far southwest Georgia.

   DISCUSSION...A short-line segment is ongoing from extreme southwest
   GA to the central FL Panhandle coast. The warm-moist sector ahead of
   this line is quite confined with only about a county-wide band of
   upper 60s surface dew points. Modified 12Z TLH sounding suggests
   this richer moisture is necessary for appreciable surface-based
   instability, and will remain the main mitigating factor to the
   severe threat. Latest CAM guidance has minimal indications for
   appreciable strengthening of this line and given the observational
   trends, additional watch issuance seems unlikely. Surface wind gusts
   still seem likely to peak in the 45-60 mph range given semi-parallel
   deep-layer flow to the orientation of the line and peak measured
   gust during the past hour of 45 mph at KMAI.

   ..Grams.. 02/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30958470 31128436 30978392 30888364 30728358 30418364
               30148383 29908418 29668491 29588521 29618528 30958470