Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

   Areas affected...South FL and the Keys

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051019Z - 051215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may develop eastward across
   south FL and the Keys over the next few hours. Gusty winds and hail
   may accompany the strongest cells.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to shift
   eastward over the next several hours, arriving near the southwest FL
   coast and the Keys by around 11-12z, and spreading east across the
   MCD area through mid-morning.

   Boundary-layer moisture across the region remains modest, with
   dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 F. RAP forecast soundings also
   exhibit somewhat dry air aloft. This will largely limit
   surface-based instability, with only weak MLCAPE noted in forecast
   soundings and latest mesoanalysis data. Nevertheless, somewhat
   strong vertical shear will overspread the area through the morning
   hours, aiding in transient strong/organized convection.
   Elongated/straight hodographs, in conjunction with somewhat cold
   temperatures aloft and favorable storm-relative flow, suggest some
   potential for marginally severe hail with strongest storm cores.
   Locally strong gusts also may accompany this activity. 

   Given low-level inhibition and overall poor thermodynamic
   environment, severe convection is expected to remain limited and a
   watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 02/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24768304 25148309 25378288 25758224 26008087 26058009
               25977988 25487997 25038022 24538081 24328153 24288199
               24358224 24608280 24768304